Fortune Watch

How much money should I withdraw annually from my portfolio when I retire?

I get that question a lot from friends and family. (Occupational hazard.) It’s also one of the most hotly debated issues in financial planning. Why? First, it’s important; we all hope to live happily in retirement. Second, every person’s situation is unique, so there’s no standard set of spending assumptions for retirement planning. Third, market returns may be mean-reverting over long time periods, but a person’s retirement happens over a specific time period, parts of which may deviate significantly from longer-term average returns that are used to forecast future asset values.

Let’s start with why the question is so critical. Ideally, you’ve been saving for four to five decades to build your nest egg. Now that you’ve stopped working, you want to use that hard-earned money for daily expenses, health care and the things you wanted to do while you were working — like taking a month-long African safari. But you also want to make sure your money lasts until you or your spouse dies, whichever comes later. Often, you want it to last even longer: Many people hope to pass along some of their assets to their children, grandchildren and other loved ones.

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Most people never forget their first love. I’ll never forget my first trading profit — but the 600 1970 dollars I pocketed on Royal Dutch Petroleum was not nearly as significant as the conceptual realization it signaled.

I was amazed that someone would pay me that much more for my stock than the newspaper said it was worth just weeks ago. What had changed? What had happened to make the stock go up, and why had it been down in the first place? Without ever needing to know the answers, I’ve been trading RDSA for over 40 years!

Looking at scores of similarly profitable, high quality companies in this manner, you would find that: 1) most move up and down regularly (if not predictably) with an upward long-term bias, and 2) that there is little if any similarity in the timing of the movements between the stocks themselves.

This is the “volatility” that most people fear and that Wall Street loves them to fear. It can be narrowly confined to certain sectors, or much broader, encompassing practically everything. The broader it becomes, the more likely it is to be categorized as either a rally or a correction.

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