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If you are a crook, unethical or a scam artist then there’s easy money to be made investing in the stock market.

When the stock market is strong, it invites the purveyors of schemes designed to make you poor and them rich to push their wares even harder.

People who know nothing of investing get tempted in a strong stock market, but want to get in on the action and there are always crooks willing to help them invest in the latest hot stock.

Unfortunately, the deals sound so great that many unsuspecting novices to investing in the stock market fall prey to the schemes.

Fear and greed are the two most powerful emotional motivators. Both drive investors to make decisions that are foolish.

When the market is in one of its down cycles, fear drives investors out of the market as prices are dropping. When the market rebounds they buy back in at prices often higher than what the got as they exited the market. Thus the famous sell low, buy high strategy – not a winner.

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From the end of 1999 through the end of 2009, all of the popular Wall Street market performance measurement tools were in the red. The average bloodletting level of the DJIA, the S & P 500, and the NASDAQ was a disturbing-to-some minus nineteen percent.

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Most of the investment community is either open-mouthed in shock or strident in blame about the somethings or someones who must be responsible for such horrific performance. Never again they swear to their clients— without ever a hint that they might themselves be the problem.

It won’t be long before the Wizards of Wall Street announce that they have studied the situation, and readied their sales minions to switch the shattered investment public into yet another fail proof (fool-magnet?) portfolio of hedges, gimmicks, signal responders, and panaceas for whatever the new decade brings.

Once again they will attempt to debug the market cycle and create an upward only future for the masses. Try not to be abused again— the markets aren’t broken, just the market shakers. Your portfolio should be up in market value— and not by just a little for the “dismal decade”.

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These are the same geniuses that created the dotcom bubble by cramming valueless securities and speculative IPOs down your throats. They are the same charlatans who created the derivative markets and fraudulently hid their gaming devices in innocent looking rolls of tissue paper.

Wall Street thrives on the boom and bust scenario — because it doesn’t really matter to them how many of you win or lose. The evidence is clear; a boring-but-winning approach has been out there (and ignored) for three equally productive decades. The investment gods are outraged!

The past decade was a fabulous decade for old-fashioned value investors, particularly those with a reasonable selling discipline in their methodology!

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It was a fabulous decade for those who understood that quality, diversification, and income generation are principles as opposed to media placating buzzwords.

It was a fabulous decade for those investors who were able to see over, beyond, and through artificial time constraints to find the long-term opportunities within every beautiful market cycle undulation. There were plenty of gyrations to gyrate to if you only knew how.

Investing is no longer a passive enterprise; and it never really was. If you can’t manage your portfolio throughout the market cycle, without succumbing either to greed, to panic, or to artificial and complicated hedging strategies, just stop. Right now. Listen and learn something old.

The only market cycle hedges needed are quality, diversification, and income— all classically defined. Throw in some disciplined selection and selling guidelines, a cost-based asset allocation formula, and a non-calendar year perspective and success will follow— cyclically.

You may miss a speculative spike or two (i.e., bubbles), but in the long run, Market Cycle Investment Management (MCIM) is a proven methodology for long run investment success.graphdown

You just can’t replace market cycle reality with calendar year gimmickry. Do better. Google investment grade value stock and request the ten-year MCIM numbers.

Change is good.

Steve Selengut

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Actually, hindsight and the Investment Grade Value Stock Index (IGVSI) Bargain Level Monitor tell us that it died early in March 2009. More realistically, however, corrections don’t die quite so abruptly. They are supplanted by rallies— and vice versa.

The IGVSI Bargain Stock Monitor tracks the price movements of an elite group of New York Stock Exchange equities. Their “eliteness” is earned by a B+ or higher S & P rating, a history of profitability, and the fact that they pay dividends to their shareholders.

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Unfortunately, they are the same companies whose boards of directors allow senior executives to pillage treasuries with obscene salaries and bonuses— and elite does not mean invulnerable to the whims of markets and governments.

But, for Working Capital Model (WCM) equity investments, they are just perfectly less risky (historically) than the others.

An IGVSI equity becomes a bargain stock (or “OK to add to your portfolio if it meets strict WCM diversification and price standards) when it falls at least 20% from its 52-week high. From 15% to 20% down, it is held in a mental “bull pen”, getting ready for the “bigs” after a few more down-tics.
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The Investment Grade Value Stock Index is a barometer of a small but elite sector of the stock market. Some Investment Grade Value Stocks are included in all averages and indices, but even the Dow Jones Industrial Average includes several issues that are below Investment Grade and very few boast an A+ S & P rating.

The IGVSI tracks a portfolio of approximately 400 stocks— and less than half of them are likely to be found in the S & P 500 average. This new market index was developed in late 2007 to provide a benchmark for the equity portion of investment portfolios managed without open-end mutual funds, index funds, or any of the other popular speculations and hedges that are included in most professionally managed portfolios.

Two related indices (the WCMSI and WCMSM) track portfolios of closed-end income funds. Between the three, they serve as an excellent performance expectation development tool for investment portfolios managed according to the disciplines of the Working Capital Model (WCM). Through July 31 2009, these indices soared approximately 24%—- about five times the growth of the S & P 500 and twelve times that of the DJIA.

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I’m not a professional tennis player. I’m not even a tennis player. The last time I touched a tennis racket was 5 years ago. But I did read about how a professional tennis player aims to hit as many balls to the opponent to make him miss, in order to win. An amateur , on the other hand, aims to try to catch as many balls as possible, aiming not to make any mistakes till his opponent eventually makes a mistake and causes himself to lose. That’s defensive playing.

I’m not a professional stock investor either. I admit neither I have the time nor the patience to go through every financial report, visit the companies I’m interested in buying and whatever else it takes to be really confident enough to put a huge chunk of my hard-earned money into the stock. So I have to invest defensively. I aim to minimise my losses while riding the general upward trend of the stock market, rather than maximising my gains on the individual hot stocks. It may limit my gains a little, but in the event of a crash, I hope to come out relatively intact. I basically expect a crash, even in the longest bull run ever. It’s like having a Plan B even though you hope you never have to use it, or buying insurance though you don’t really want to die or get a critical illness just to make the most of it.

So how do I play my defensive game ? I protect myself the following ways.

1. I stick with what I know. It’s easier to figure out that maybe the market has over-reacted when you are familiar with the industry. For example, I bought Bank Of America at $4 and Citigroup at $1. The prices were crashing as people anticipated a further crash and that didn’t happen. Today they are holding at $13 and $3.5 respectively. Do the exact opposite of what the average investor is doing. I bought Merck when it was being sued for one of its drugs , Vioxx. The price crashed as people anticipated huge lawsuit payouts, which never happened.

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Is it luck or skill that gets us to the goals and objectives we set for ourselves— gimmicks and software programs or practice and understanding? How many golfers are still using the putter they started with decades ago at a nine-hole cow pasture? How many of you are still bouncing between investment gurus and hedges in your search for the investment holy grail?

The best athletes come to the competition with sound fundamentals, well thought out objectives, and the discipline to hone their basic technique with countless hours of practice. The most successful investors come to the process with sound fundamentals, realistic goals and objectives, and a consistently applied discipline that embraces the cyclical nature of markets and economies.

Discipline is an ingredient in most long-term success recipes— business, sports, relationships, politics, veal scaloppini, etc. Well, maybe not politics. There are “fundamentals” involved in each.

Favorite foursome conversations provide clues to the particular fundamental that just failed you, as your duck-hooked tee shot comes to rest at the base of the dead pine tree, and possibly, just beyond the white stake. “Have you weakened your grip?” comments Larry. “Nah, he was lined up that way; went right where he aimed it,” Curley offers.

“Might have worked out just fine if he hadn’t picked his head up so soon,” spouts Moe. “What are you guys talking about? I was set up to fade the ball but I swung way too hard at the bottom and closed down the club face,” you bark as you tee up a provisional.

Grip, alignment, focus, target, and tempo— some major golf fundamentals.

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indian_shares_zoom_180509Expectedly, after the resounding victory by the Congress Party in the general elections, markets skyrocketed as soon as the opening bell was sounded; eyeing a windfall in terms of government spending in a host of sectors to pump-prime the economy.

The sentiment was so strong in the trading community and the going was so good on the BSE Sensex that it reached the 17.24 per cent gain mark in no time, forcing the authorities to temporarily halt trading, when the circuit breaker* kicked in.

The same story repeated itself on the National Stock Exchange where the trading was also halted with the Nifty up by 17.33 per cent.

Within seconds of trading, the Bombay Stock Exchange’s benchmark Sensex vaulted 2,110.79 points, or 17.3 percent, to 14,284.21, triggering the historic shutdown Monday. Infrastructure, banking and real estate companies led gains. Trade was forced to close for the day, after the Congress Party’s definitive victory in national elections set the scene for long-delayed economic reforms

“The big question – is it a game changer? Can India get back to the high growth, high valuation of recent years? This event probably does open up meaningful possibilities, but there’s a lot to do, and there could be a lot in the way,” she said in a report.

Trading has never before been halted due to an upward swing in stock prices, according to the Bombay Stock Exchange.

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beckyquickwarrenbuffettA couple of days ago, I watched a short interview with the legendary investor Warren Buffett on an investment news channel. The interview was conducted shortly after the annual general meeting (AGM) of Buffett’s company Berkshire Hathaway. Buffet said many interesting things—as he always does—but the really educational part of the interview was the contrast between the world that Buffett inhabits and the world that his interviewer seemed to come from.

It was like listening to members of two different species talk. If a fly (which lives for perhaps a few hours) and a tortoise (who can survive for a hundred years or more) had a conversation, it would probably sound like Buffett and that interviewer.

At one point, the interviewer asked Buffett to comment on how his companies would cope with the downturn. Buffett replied that things were certainly down at the moment but he expected them to be OK in three to five years. I could see that the mere mention of a time scale like three to five years had derailed the interviewer’s thought process. Coming as she did from a world where three to five hours or at most three to five days is the standard unit of time, the idea of an investor talking in years seemed to have thrown a spanner in her works.

Next, she pulled out the day’s newspaper and drew the old man’s attention to a news item that US unemployment was up to 700,000. She wanted to know what he thought of the news. Buffett said that he was sure that five years from now, the employment situation would be much better than it was today. Again, this epic timescale put an end to that line of questioning.
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The Working Capital Model (WCM) looks at investment performance differently, less emotionally, and without a whole lot of concern for short-term market value movements. Market value performance evaluation techniques are only used to analyze peak-to-peak market cycle movements over significant time periods.

Security market values are used for buy and sell decision-making. Working capital figures are used for asset allocation and diversification calculations. Portfolio working capital growth numbers are used to evaluate goal directed management decisions over shorter periods of time.

WCM tracking techniques help investors focus on long term growth producers like capital gains, dividends, and interest— the things that can keep the working capital line (see Part One) moving ever upward. The base income and cumulative realized capital gains lines are the most important WCM growth engines.

The Base Income Line tracks the total dividends and interest received each year. It will always move upward if you are managing your equity vs. fixed income asset allocation properly. Without adequate base income: 1) working capital will not grow normally during corrections and 2) there won’t be enough cash flow to take advantage of new investment opportunities.

The earlier you start tracking your dependable base income, the sooner you will discover that your retirement comfort level has little to do with portfolio market value.
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header_2Every correction is the same, a normal downturn in one or more of the markets where we invest. There has never been a correction that has not proven to be an investment opportunity. You can be confident that governments around the world are not going to allow another Great Depression “on their watch”.

Every correction is different, the result of various economic and/or political circumstances that create the need for adjustments in the financial markets.

While everything is down in price, as it is now, there is actually less to worry about. When the going gets tough, the tough go shopping.

In this case, an overheated real estate market, an overdose of financial bad judgment, and a damn the torpedoes stock market, propelled by demand for speculative derivative securities and Hedge Funds, finally came unglued.

But it is the reality of corrections that is one of the few certainties of the financial world, one that separates the men from the boys, if you will. If you fixate on your portfolio market value during a correction, you will just give yourself a headache, or worse.

Few of the fundamental qualities that made your IGVSI securities sound investments just two years ago have permanently disappeared. We’ll be using credit cards, driving cars and motorcycles, drinking beer, and buying clothes twenty years from now. Very few interest payments have been missed and surprisingly few dividends eliminated.

Only the prices have changed, to preserve the long-term reality of things—and in both of our markets.
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