Fortune Watch

How is it that very few investors can make real profits, grow their net worth and consistently beat the market? That’s because it often takes one or more of the following rare traits…

The vision to identify breakthrough products, leaders, and brands.
The knowledge to spot an undervalued gem in a sea of glass
The courage to buy and hold when others are running scared

Occasionally, you’ll come across an investor with one of these valuable characteristics. And it’s likely that person does quite well. But I can’t imagine a person who can offer all three.

That would take two very different and even contradictory approaches…Fortune favors the brave only!!

The global economy looks set for a rocky ride in 2008. But for investors with enough cash in their portfolios this year will offer many opportunities to pick up undervalued assets. Equities in developed markets look particularly cheap.

While economists believe that the US is already in recession, other parts of the world are still enjoying good growth. Nonetheless, lower corporate profitability, inflationary pressure decreased liquidity in international markets and the slow pace of interest rate cuts are likely to spell modest returns across many asset classes.

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No matter how much you’ve read about trading, or how much experience you have as a trader, it is difficult to trade profitably in a volatile market environment like the one we are in now. A rising market is often perceived to reflect optimism and investor faith. Enthusiasm and rejuvenated interest in the markets rides high. Many investors have multiplied their money manifolds.

Now, is it time to quit? Will the bubble burst? The investor has many questions and very few options before him. Strategies for a rising market are crucial and much depends on the risk appetite of the investor.

Don’t sell into the panic. Don’t buy the greed. This is of course obvious to say, but harder to execute when it is actually happening. When you have extreme market conditions, the individual stock movements can be big and rapid, and they are not necessarily, and in fact, usually not at all, related to fundamentals or economics.

Will the upswing continue? This is a difficult question and much depends on the factors that contribute to the bull run. Many perceive the market to be over-heated and fear to set foot in it. Others view corrections as an opportunity to make quick money. But this calls for quick decision-making and considerable tolerance to risk.

The unfailing strategy is to buy great companies with long track records of rising stock prices and dividends. Pick them low and hold on. Over a long haul, such companies with good fundamentals will not fail you. It is not unusual to find some stocks faring poorly in a bull market and some doing exceptionally well in a bear market. A bull run implies a booming economy, low unemployment rate, high production of goods and low inflation.

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Microsoft is buying when Yahoo is at its nadir rather than when it was ridiculously overvalued. Besides, when you think about it, what other company might make Microsoft’s short list to buy to stay in the game with Google. AOL? Spare me.

Microsoft founder Bill Gates offered California-based Yahoo! An unsolicited takeover offer of $44.6 billion in its boldest bid yet to challenge Google Inc.’s dominance of the lucrative online search and advertising markets.

The offer – made when Yahoo’s share price had reached a two-year low – will be hard for Yahoo’s board to resist because the company’s financial outlook doesn’t instill much confidence. Luckily for Microsoft, it is probably paying half what it would’ve had to shell out a year ago, which is the main reason we’re seeing it.

Leading members of the committee scheduled a hearing on Friday after Microsoft offer. Microsoft and Google are locked in the equivalent of an “arms race” building up computing and storage capacity to accommodate more and more of the world’s web-based computing activities.

Microsoft’s bid to acquire Yahoo! is certainly one of the largest technology mergers we’ve seen and presents important issues regarding the competitive landscape of the Internet. Indeed Yahoo needs Microsoft’s protection and resources simply to as a brand, while Microsoft needs Yahoo’s Web-savvy to help it keep up with the ever quickening metabolism of high-tech.

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Look at any bear market and even at its lowest point you will find stocks that do quite well. Similarly, in any bull market there are stocks that do poorly. It is true that market risk – the danger that a declining overall market may affect your stock – is real. However, investors who have done their homework know the difference between a general market decline and something wrong with their stock.

There’s this bit in Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets when Harry and his friend Ron Weasely go into the dark forest and come upon a giant spider. When Ron, who is mortally scared of spiders, looks like panicking, Harry shuts him up with a stern “Don’t Panic.” A short while later, when the duo are attacked by a huge hoard of giant spiders, Ron turns to Harry and asks matter of factly, “Can we panic now?”

That’s the question that many people are asking about the economy, the continuing credit crisis in that country and the hastening collapse of the dollar. Back in August, when the sub prime crisis first broke, there was a worldwide panic but the US Federal Reserve stopped it by lowering interest rates and generally acting like it was determined to not let things get worse.

Lately, in a testimony before the congress, many seemed to suggest that the worst is yet to come and it could be a lot worse. They admitted that the credit crisis resulting from soaring defaults of sub-prime mortgages had become worse since it first broke in August. Bernanke predicted that growth would fall sharply at least over the next two quarters. He also said the crisis would worsen in the coming months and appeared to hint that the crisis on Wall Street could spiral into a full-blown recession.

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