Fortune Watch

The undeniable truth is that making a lot of money doesn’t require a high IQ, either in the market or in business. It takes ruthless disciplined routine, and a focus on doing what is right for the long-term.

You can just feel it, can’t you? People are terrified about how the market has acted over the past month, to be more precise since the last one week. Watch the news — watch if you dare. The “boo-yahs” seem more restrained.

This is the time to buy andd hold on to solid blue-chips. Buy shares of good businesses that generate real profits, attractive returns on equity, have low to moderate debt to equity ratios, improving gross profit margins, a shareholder-friendly management, and at least some franchise value. Everyone is thinking this is a terrible time to be invested. But when everyone is thinking the same thing, no one is thinking much at all. That means ….OPPORTUNITY.

If you have been wanting to change your financial future for the better, then now is the perfect time.  The invetory of cash producing, equity filled homes is at an all time high!  Did you know that most retirees single most lucrative investment during their working years was the home that they lived in.  Imagine if they had bought just one or two more properties (that supported themselves of course) and then retired.

Those are the moments when fortunes are made. You might not recognize it at the time. You might not know it for years. But it’s true. When everyone is down on a stock, or a sector, or a country, you might as well take a look. Usually, the negativity comes with good reason. But the over-negativity can provide plenty of opportunity. It’s been that way forever, and it will always be so.

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Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway, which has avoided major acquisitions in the financial sector in recent months, may have had a $3.5 billion two-day paper profit on six major banking and financial services investments.

The two-day rally in financial shares, which drove the broad S&P Financials Index 24 per cent, came as the government announced sweeping measures to rescue the financial system and restore confidence in shaky markets.

Shares of Wells Fargo & Company, the fifth-largest US bank and Berkshire’s second-largest investment as of June 30, rose 19pc over the last two days and touched a record high. That would have given Berkshire a $1.85bn paper profit on its reported 290.7 million share stake.

Berkshire would also have had a $1.12bn profit on its reported 151.6m share stake in American Express Company, the credit card and travel services company. Stakes in Bank of America, M&T Bank, SunTrust Banks and US Bancorp also gained value.

Buffett has long favoured investments in undervalued businesses with strong earnings and management. That has helped him transform Berkshire since 1965 from a failing textile maker into a conglomerate with at least 76 companies.

“He’s always felt Wells was very well-managed,” said Frank Betz, who oversees more than $800m at Carret/Zane Capital Management in Warren, New Jersey. “Why does he like banks? Like Willie Sutton said, it’s where the money is.”

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Another crisis unfolding in the US, if this is likely to give you sleepless nights and you ponder on whether to sell or hold on to your equity portfolio, here’s a word of advice. Stay calm and invested, don’t panic and sell.

You don’t incur losses till the time you book them. Equity markets behave in this fashion and investors should take such falls in their stride. If you are a long-term investor, you are likely to get the best returns in such turbulent times.

At such low levels, markets look quite attractive. For investors waiting to venture into the markets, this is an ideal time to average out the cost of purchase. Invest in stocks that are fundamentally strong, preferably in a broad-based index that gives you exposure to large cap stocks. Avoid small or mid-cap companies. But if you lack understanding or don’t have much information, then take the help of professionals or try the mutual fund way.

To start off, one can look at index funds that mirror the movement of an index. Index funds should form the nucleus of your equity investments and other funds should surround it. These funds act as a stabilizing factor in an equity portfolio and should not be always seen as a return-giving factor.

But how about those who are already neck-deep into equities? “Stay invested. Don’t change the investment strategy and keep investing in a staggered manner.”

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Here we consider the seven stages of monitoring investments throughout life.

The seven ages of man is a speech from one of Shakespeare’s plays and catalogues the stages we go through in life, from baby to old age. It is an excellent comparison to investing and how investors need to ensure their investments keep pace with them as they move through life. However, this doesn’t just apply to saving for retirement, it applies to any investment goal and portfolios need to be monitored to make sure they are on track to achieve their objective.

Baby to young adult: Although financial commitments are negligible at this stage in life, it is a good idea to encourage children to save for themselves and to understand the basics of money from an early age.

Under 25: Retirement is a long way and a bulk of an individual’s income may be earmarked to fund their current lifestyle – buying property or cars for example – rather than saving for later years. However it is still a good idea to get started in investing and understanding what it is all about. Now also might be a good time to develop a high risk, aggressive portfolio as there is plenty of time to recover from any capital losses.

25 to 35: Although retirement may still seem a long time away, the earlier someone starts investing, the greater chance they have of building a significant nest egg for later years. At this stage in life people may be able to afford higher risk and more aggressive growth strategies as there is more time for investments to recover from losses or market volatility.

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The US is already in a recession and it will be longer as well as deeper than many people expect, US investor Warren Buffett said. Warren Buffett said the economy is still in a recession and unlikely to improve before 2009 but that stocks appear better valued than a year ago.

He said in an interview the US was “already in recession” and added: “Perhaps not in the sense that economists would define it” with two consecutive quarters of negative growth. “But the people are already feeling the effects,” said Buffett, the world’s richest man. “It will be deeper and last longer than many think.”

“You always find out who’s been swimming naked when the tide goes out. We found out that Wall Street has been kind of a nudist beach,” said Buffett, who in March was called the world’s richest person by Forbes magazine.

But that is just part of a market system. And you know, if I had to pick the chances that we are going into a recession, I would say they are fairly significant, but I don’t know anything that you don’t know.

However he said that won’t stop him from investing in selected companies and said he remained interested in well-managed German family-owned companies.

“If the world were falling apart I’d still invest in companies,” he said.

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• You are neither right nor wrong because the crowd disagrees with you. You are right because your data and reasoning are right.

• We do not view the company itself as the ultimate owner of our business assets but instead view the company as a conduit through which our shareholders own assets.

• When Berkshire buys common stock, we approach the transaction as if we were buying into a private business.

• Wide diversification is only required when investors do not understand what they are doing.

• Never invest in a business you cannot understand.

• Unless you can watch your stock holding decline by 50% without becoming panic-stricken, you should not be in the stock market.

• The critical investment factor is determining the intrinsic value of a business and paying a fair or bargain price.

• Risk can be greatly reduced by concentrating on only a few holdings.

• Stop trying to predict the direction of the stock market, the economy, interest rates, or elections.

• Buy companies with strong histories of profitability and with a dominant business franchise.

• Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy only when others are fearful.

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U.S. stocks will continue to fall next week, in continuation of a sell-off that saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average experience its worst week in over four years, due to nervousness that the easy-money binge of the last few years has come to an end. No fireworks in earnings so far.

It will be tough for Wall Street to shake off the bear market blues next week if the price of oil keeps rising and the earnings season kick-off from Alcoa and General Electric disappoints investors. Stocks will remain vulnerable to any new signs of distress from hedge funds hit by their exposure to bad U.S. home loans, as well as from credit markets, where Wall Street firms and corporations are finding it harder and harder to obtain financing.

Oil has become the biggest wild card for growth and corporate profits. It jumped to a record above $145 a barrel on Thursday, driven by tensions between Israel and Iran, before the long holiday weekend to mark US Independence Day.

The price of crude is up 50 percent so far this year.

On Friday, US markets are closed on July 4th for the Independence Day holiday.

Financial results from Alcoa and GE will kick off the second-quarter earnings season next week. Aluminum company Alcoa, the first Dow component to report results, will release its quarterly numbers on Tuesday. GE, another Dow industrial and a bellwether for the US economy, will report earnings on Friday. Aside from second-quarter results, investors are anxious to see the companies’ forecasts for world economic growth and their own corporate sales prospects.

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The region has been hit by concerns over a US slowdown and rising risk aversion in the wake of the US sub prime mortgage crisis, with many investors seeing Asian markets as a high beta play on US Growth. Foreign investors have consequently sold down Asia aggressively as a way to reduce risk in their portfolios.

Rising inflation has also negatively affected Asian equity markets. Inflation, especially food inflation, is now at multi-year highs in most Asian countries, with inflation numbers in China, India and Indonesia particularly high. The possibility of further monetary tightening around the region and the impact of rising input prices on corporate profitability have to be monitored closely.

Finally, valuations had begun to look stretched, sparking some profit taking. After a 40% run in 2007, Asia ex Japan started 2008 with a PE (price-to-earnings) of 16x, the first year since the start of the decade where Asia entered the New Year trading at a premium to most other global equity markets. It is therefore perhaps not a surprise that Asia, particularly China and India, experienced the most profit-taking/foreign-led selling in the first quarter of 2008.

The global economy is weakening and inflation in China remains a threat. Therefore, Asian markets are likely to remain volatile over the next couple of months. Several Asian markets, especially the Indian equity market, also remain vulnerable to changes in global risk appetite as foreign inflows have been the major driver of these markets. We therefore continue to monitor fund flows and global risk sentiment closely, while cash levels in our portfolios have also risen marginally.

However, Asia should be supported by still strong corporate earnings growth, as there is no sign of any immediate impact from the US subprime crisis on Asian earnings. In fact earnings growth in Asia remains strong, led by China and India, which are forecasted to grow earnings by around 20%2 in 2008 according to our estimates.

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Human’s are rational beings. We have the most developed brain among all species. However, in spite of all this, we are foremost governed by his emotions. It is said, man is ruled more by the heart than his mind. And these emotions, more often than not, play a huge role in man’s investments too. This is the sole reason, say, why the same person at one time might want to invest in the stock market, while at another time might find the same too much of a risk.

Investors may also feel attached towards a specific company and continue owning the stock without regards to its fundamental. For example, you might like Google’s search engine so much that you decide to buy the stock at $ 350 without doing any research. You figure that Google’s search engine is so much better that buying the stock will give you profit, right? Wrong. Now, I am not here to bash Google as an investment, but analyzing an investment goes beyond the products and companies. Most investors can identify good companies and products. It is quite easy. You know that a BMW is a better car than a Ford.

Emotions often also control the company one is investing in. Generally brand loyalties come into the picture here too. Example, if someone prefers purchasing his sportswear from Nike, he may want to invest in its stocks too, although the Reebok stocks may be doing far better. It is always better to conduct a proper research and check the latest trends rather than blindly following your heart. Keep in mind that you are currently dealing with the stock market and not the super market.

Google is a good search engine, probably the best that is ever produced so far. Sure, you probably pay more for Google than other generic search engines. But, please don’t over pay. You invest in Google to profit from it not because you like its products.

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No question, foreclosures are at a record number right now. After a period of aggressive lending, more and more people are finding it impossible to meet their mortgage repayments. The banks and other lenders, in turn, are foreclosing on more and more properties.

I think the banks committed “foreclosure suicide” when they issued some of these adjustable loans and creative loan programs to people who really shouldn’t be getting those loans. They are now seeing the fruits of their labor. Given the crash in property prices across the nation… this means huge opportunities for the savvy real estate investor. So in this article I’ll outline the main ways you can make money from foreclosures.

Okay, so what is a foreclosure? Basically, a foreclosure arises where someone who has borrowed money from a bank or other lender to buy a property — and has given the lender the property as security for the loan — fails to meet their mortgage repayment obligations… and the lender decides to repossess and sell the property as a result.

There are three main foreclosure investment opportunities, depending on the status of the foreclosed home in the foreclosure process.

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