Fortune Watch

Can lawmakers who don’t have the courage or intelligence to outlaw texting while driving really be expected to create a saner tax structure? Hmmm.

Developing a fairer tax environment is much less an economics problem than it is a political dilemma and, as many of you observed, it is unlikely that anything “tax” will be improved upon until there is some serious facial (and cultural) change in Washington.

Politicians focus on one issue at a time, and pretend to have problems dealing with inter-related programs. Tenured politicians have a vested interest in resisting any change that involves their spheres of influence. Both parties are embarrassingly mired in twentieth century class warfare that stifles all forms of productive debate.

Tax cuts don’t just benefit the rich. In fact, they provide the opportunity for everyone to attain greater wealth. Demand directs resources far better than punitive taxation. Money in consumer hands will fuel social and environmentally friendly change.

“You cannot eliminate revenue from one program without replacing it from another, equally complicated, one”, career politicians will say philosophically.

They have little to gain from simplifying the tax collection system — yet it is obvious that a whole new approach would solve most of the economic woes plaguing us today, domestic and international.
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If you serach for online casinos at the moment there are thousands of casinos around at the moment, both online and land based.  But can it be done? If you search or visit the best online casino can you find a source of betting systems that don’t require you to pay $100’s up-front with no proof that they work? Can any betting system work at a casino? This site offers listings of top rated online casinos including those that accept US players and features a forum.

With the right system, and most importantly, the right discipline, it can be done. Casinos typically work to a ‘House Edge’ of 1 to 5%. For every $100 gambled, the player will lose $1 to $5. It doesn’t sound like much, but in a multi-billion dollar industry it’s enough to make online casinos some of the most profitable sites in the world, and to build Las Vegas up from nothing in just a few years.

A whole lot of people will tell you that it is impossible to overturn this edge, and from a purely mathematical point of view they are correct. The Laws of Probability mean that you cannot turn a negative into a positive. If you are playing Roulette, and Black has come up 10 times in a row, the odds of it coming up next time are still 50/50. (Ignoring the ‘0’ and ’00’) According to the Laws of Probability, there is no reason why Black cannot come up 100 times in a row. This argument, while scientifically sound, ignores the Law of Possibility, which means that in the real world, the chances of Black coming up 100 times in a row is so slight that it can be ignored.
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Actually, hindsight and the Investment Grade Value Stock Index (IGVSI) Bargain Level Monitor tell us that it died early in March 2009. More realistically, however, corrections don’t die quite so abruptly. They are supplanted by rallies— and vice versa.

The IGVSI Bargain Stock Monitor tracks the price movements of an elite group of New York Stock Exchange equities. Their “eliteness” is earned by a B+ or higher S & P rating, a history of profitability, and the fact that they pay dividends to their shareholders.

Unfortunately, they are the same companies whose boards of directors allow senior executives to pillage treasuries with obscene salaries and bonuses— and elite does not mean invulnerable to the whims of markets and governments.

But, for Working Capital Model (WCM) equity investments, they are just perfectly less risky (historically) than the others.

An IGVSI equity becomes a bargain stock (or “OK to add to your portfolio if it meets strict WCM diversification and price standards) when it falls at least 20% from its 52-week high. From 15% to 20% down, it is held in a mental “bull pen”, getting ready for the “bigs” after a few more down-tics.
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My survey produced an interesting anomaly— several respondents felt that excessive consumer spending was the primary cause of the economic problems we face today, and that spending is not to be encouraged.

But the root problem they were correctly speaking to is the source of the spending money, not the spending itself. Spending is essential for demand creation, and increasing demand is what produces jobs.

So why we ask, does government remove the dollars from the economy before they accomplish the demand stimulus “thingie” (highly technical economics jargon)? Nearly half the survey responses observed that consumption taxes (The Fair Tax) are far more productive/creative than income taxes.

The other half wants to replace the IRC (Internal Revenue Code) with a Flat Tax on all forms of income. Both suggestions are simple, and quantum leaps better than anything being seriously considered by congress— “seriously” being the operative word.

A combination of the two— priceless, but later!
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My recent survey produced a variety of ideas, but most of them had these common elements: replace the Internal Revenue Code with a simpler model, encourage businesses to increase employment, and insist upon tort reform everywhere.

It also brought two disturbing realities into focus: We are painfully apathetic (less than 1% of the people I contacted took the time to respond) and, although we have great problem-solving ideas, few to none of them are included in any of the reforms being considered by congress.

For those who participated, thank you again. I hope that you will appreciate how I’ve synthesized your thoughts and suggestions into the commentary. I also hope that you will find the time to address some of these issues more aggressively with blogs, networks, and elected officials.

Major changes are being proposed in six inter-related areas. All the dots cannot be connected in one article. Government revenue is cut in this article and the next without a hint about a replacement plan. I’ll get to that later, and painlessly for all of us.

So how do we create more jobs?

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As impossible as it is to predict the future of the markets, it’s relatively easy to anticipate what you are going to experience when you view your next brokerage account statement.

Whether you go the discount route through Schwab, Ameritrade, Fidelity, etc., or enjoy a higher level of service through an independent like LMK Wealth Management, you should never be surprised by the market values reflected on your monthly statement.

None of the firms make it easy for you to examine asset allocation, particularly on a working capital basis, and most refuse to even acknowledge that Municipal CEFs should not be lumped in with the equities. Additionally, no brokerage statement ever includes a warning label about the dangers of margin borrowing. Surprised? Not.

But, you can be sure that all statements will emphasize (in every conceivable way) the short-term change in your market value. Any long term or cyclical analysis (if any) is reserved for the “we understand your long term objectives” propaganda that fills their prospect-only glossies.
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You knew it the moment it left the club, that spark at contact when you catch it just right. You look up. It’s just reaching the top of its climb— and heading down right at the pin, a pin positioned left of center on the elevated green, much too close to the water.

This could be the one! Four mouths hang open, not a sound. Then whack, the ball strikes low on the stick and disappears; the pin wobbles; the ball is nowhere to be seen—

Moe and Curley are certain it dropped into the hole as they hurry their tee shots and rush to their cart. “My buddy Stan holed out like that at Disney a few years ago”, you hear, as they search the cooler for four cold brewskis.

Larry isn’t ready to slap you on the back yet. “With my luck”, he says, “the ball would go dead left, down the hill and into the water”. He calmly puts his tee shot on the green, far to the right of the pin— about where you were really aiming. What are your expectations? What scenario fits your game today?
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The White House has released another of its health care reform clarification emails— there will be more. It seems strange to me that the focus is on insurance coverage rather than on the spiraling costs of health care itself.

Frankly, the drafters of the insurance reforms have little, if any, understanding of insurance, risk assessment, or underwriting— and nary a clue about running a business. But why should they care? This is Robin Hood politics, not business. Why do we continue to re-elect them is a far better question.

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Warren Buffet a highly influential American has finally hit the panic button, saying that we are going to be crushed under a mountain of debt taking into consideration the amount of debt the country is piling up.

Last year, Warren Buffett says, we were justified in using any means necessary to stave off another Great Depression. Now that the economy is beginning to recover, however, we need to curtail our out-of-control spending, or we’ll destroy the value of the dollar and many Americans’ life savings.

Here are some not-so-fun facts from Buffett’s editorial today in the New York Times:

* Congress is now spending 185% of what it takes in
* Our deficit is a post WWII record of 13% of GDP
* Our debt is growing by 1% a month
* We are borrowing $1.8 trillion a year

$1.8 trillion, that’s a lot of money. Even if the Chinese lend us $400 billion a year and Americans save a remarkable $500 billion and lend it to the government, we’ll still need another $900 billion.

Which brings us to the million Dollar question “where’s it going to come from?” Most likely the printing press. And, ultimately, that will destroy the value of the dollar.

A  Miami man, Albert Gonzalez, 28, his motto is “operation get rich or die trying”. Two Russians and Albert Gonzalez are being indicted for allegedly stealing 130 million credit card numbers, the largest identity theft in history. That’s a lot of credit card numbers — like, one for every housing unit in the United States. Just how did they do it?

The historic theft involved five corporate data hackings, between 2006 and 2008, including Heartland, Hannaford, 7-Eleven and two unnamed companies, according to Channel Web. US investigators say the team scanned lists of Fortune 500 companies and learned about their checkout counter machines (also known as point-of-sale systems).

Then they would write specific codes to corrupt their data systems and launch a virus from computers in the United States and Europe to pull hundreds and thousands of credit card numbers, and sort through them using a “sniffer,” which is basically a data analysis system that decodes big chunks of information.
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