Fortune Watch

The Working Capital Model (WCM) looks at investment performance differently, less emotionally, and without a whole lot of concern for short-term market value movements. Market value performance evaluation techniques are only used to analyze peak-to-peak market cycle movements over significant time periods.

Security market values are used for buy and sell decision-making. Working capital figures are used for asset allocation and diversification calculations. Portfolio working capital growth numbers are used to evaluate goal directed management decisions over shorter periods of time.

WCM tracking techniques help investors focus on long term growth producers like capital gains, dividends, and interest— the things that can keep the working capital line (see Part One) moving ever upward. The base income and cumulative realized capital gains lines are the most important WCM growth engines.

The Base Income Line tracks the total dividends and interest received each year. It will always move upward if you are managing your equity vs. fixed income asset allocation properly. Without adequate base income: 1) working capital will not grow normally during corrections and 2) there won’t be enough cash flow to take advantage of new investment opportunities.

The earlier you start tracking your dependable base income, the sooner you will discover that your retirement comfort level has little to do with portfolio market value.
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The year 2008 has entered the record books for all of the wrong reasons; the Dow Jones had its worst year ever! So what about 2009, how will stock markets from around the world perform and which are the stocks to follow?

Well in reality you need a crystal ball to be able to answer these questions. 2009 may well be another tough year.

I am a person who enjoys investing on the stock markets and I have to say that I am a bit of a gambler; I am quite prepared to take a risk with my disposable income in the hope that I can increase it etc. Just a quick note however, I am a financial adviser and anything that I write or suggest in this article should not be seen as advice.

I personally believe in investing an amount of money (an amount that I can afford) on a monthly basis instead of investing lump sums. This way I am able to take advantage of what is commonly referred to as Dollar cost averaging in the United States. This is where when prices are high your monthly contribution may buy fewer shares or fund units but that when prices are low your investment buys more shares or fund units.

During these volatile times this method of investing may prove to be the most prudent. Even though stock markets had a very poor 2008 and is therefore quite low there may well be significant falls ahead.
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As the growing number of foreclosures and the value of stock portfolios hit bottom, news reports from the US of the financial fallout are growing increasingly dire.

Layoffs, foreclosures, cutbacks – there are plenty of grim economic stats out there this holiday season. Here’s perhaps the grimmest one of all: Calls to National Suicide Prevention Lifeline hotline have soared by as much as 60 per cent over the past year.

Mental health experts say the sour economy has turned what usually manifests as seasonal blues into a full-blown crisis. The fear of losing one’s job and pressures caused by a downturn in business, demotion or pension plan cutbacks can be bad for mental health and therefore increase suicide risk.

“Fear is the No. 1 emotion we’re hearing. People are feeling hopeless and helpless because of the economic crisis, and many feel that things aren’t going to get better. Now many of the calls are from people who have lost their home, or their job, or who still have a job but can’t meet the cost of living.”

A 90-year-old woman in Ohio shot herself while being served an eviction notice. A 45-year-old businessman in Los Angeles murdered five members of his family before turning the gun on himself, saying in a suicide note that he had done so because of his troubling financial situation.

While these stories put a human face on the toll the financial crisis has taken, the Director General of the World Health Organization this may only be the tip of the iceberg. As people struggle to cope with losing their homes or livelihoods, she said, “It should not come as a surprise if we continue to see more stresses, more suicides and more mental disorders.”
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My basic money-saving strategy goes like this: Decrease your expenses, and increase your income. That’s really all there is to it.

While the concept itself is not at all complicated, in reality it can be difficult to actually put into practice because it requires you to change your poor spending habits. But complicated? No, not at all.

So how do you actually go about following this money saving technique? What, specifically, should you do?

Let’s use the following analogy. If you were trying to lose weight, you could accomplish that by going on a diet and not doing any additional exercise.

You could also accomplish the goal of losing weight by eating the same as you’re eating now, but doing a lot more exercise to ensure weight loss. However, the best, fastest and healthiest way to lose weight would be to do both: eat healthy food in moderate proportions AND exercise regularly.

Similarly, you’ll get out of debt and maximize your financial results most effectively if you reduce your expenses AND increase your income at the same time.

Reducing your expenses is fairly self-explanatory. Spend a day or two reviewing the past 60 days of expenditures in your check register, or if you haven’t kept good records, start tracking every single penny you spend, thus compiling a list of your ACTUAL expenses.
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For the uninitiated, the stock market looks either a rosy picture or the dooms day scenario. Actually it is a mixture of both. By investing wisely, you can get the money of life time or if you are not careful, you may lose money of life time.

Don’t follow the herd mentality. This is one of the top mistakes to avoid. The herd mentality is THE reason why many investors lose their money. Actually when your neighbor or friend is buying, since everyone is buying, stop and think for one moment “is this share worth its money today and does it have a growth potential?” If the answer is a YES after study of the share, go ahead and buy that share. If you have a slightest doubt, refrain from buying. Do not buy just because someone else is buying.

Not deciding your time line: When you start investing in stocks, you have to decide your time line or profit margins when you are going to quit. If you do not do that you may pass on the period of greatest value for your stock. Thinking that your stock will go up when it has reached its present peak, is a sure way of losing your money. Of course it is not possible to sell your stock at peak very time, but if you have decided the limits, you will not be sorry.

Not cutting down losses: For every stock, there is a range and depending on the general market conditions and fundamentals of the company you can decide the price of the stock you hold. If either of the above two conditions compel a stock to go down, have predetermined limits when you are going to sell irrespective of market conditions. This will cut down the losses you may have in future.

Taking too much risk: If you are a reckless investor, you will have blame yourself for taking too much risk. A calculated risk is what one is expected to take in stock markets. Taking too much risk based on hear say from the market, is a sure way for doom.

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