Fortune Watch

This won’t take long, but think about the message and act accordingly.

Never, ever, in the history of the investment world has a major correction in the stock market not been a major buying opportunity — particularly in Investment Grade Value Stocks (IGVS).

Always, every time and without exception, the general media has predicted the end of the financial world, financial experts have pointed out the remarkable differences from the last correction, and investors everywhere have been encouraged to take their losses and sit on cash or gold until the smoke clears.

Every time, the short sighted fear mongers have been wrong. Not just most of the time mind you — absolutely all of the time. Similarly, the investing public has always been mesmerized into a take-no-further-action coma by whomever and whatever they listen to.

At the same time, every time, without exception, while the financial markets plummet out of control down the most recent “Double Black Diamond” Wall Street favorite, the few investors who practice Market Cycle Investment Management are collecting IGVSs in their cash rich shopping carts, preparing for the next “Silver Bullet” up the mountain.

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Actually, hindsight and the Investment Grade Value Stock Index (IGVSI) Bargain Level Monitor tell us that it died early in March 2009. More realistically, however, corrections don’t die quite so abruptly. They are supplanted by rallies— and vice versa.

The IGVSI Bargain Stock Monitor tracks the price movements of an elite group of New York Stock Exchange equities. Their “eliteness” is earned by a B+ or higher S & P rating, a history of profitability, and the fact that they pay dividends to their shareholders.

Unfortunately, they are the same companies whose boards of directors allow senior executives to pillage treasuries with obscene salaries and bonuses— and elite does not mean invulnerable to the whims of markets and governments.

But, for Working Capital Model (WCM) equity investments, they are just perfectly less risky (historically) than the others.

An IGVSI equity becomes a bargain stock (or “OK to add to your portfolio if it meets strict WCM diversification and price standards) when it falls at least 20% from its 52-week high. From 15% to 20% down, it is held in a mental “bull pen”, getting ready for the “bigs” after a few more down-tics.
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A couple of days ago, I watched a short interview with the legendary investor Warren Buffett on an investment news channel. The interview was conducted shortly after the annual general meeting (AGM) of Buffett’s company Berkshire Hathaway. Buffet said many interesting things—as he always does—but the really educational part of the interview was the contrast between the world that Buffett inhabits and the world that his interviewer seemed to come from.

It was like listening to members of two different species talk. If a fly (which lives for perhaps a few hours) and a tortoise (who can survive for a hundred years or more) had a conversation, it would probably sound like Buffett and that interviewer.

At one point, the interviewer asked Buffett to comment on how his companies would cope with the downturn. Buffett replied that things were certainly down at the moment but he expected them to be OK in three to five years. I could see that the mere mention of a time scale like three to five years had derailed the interviewer’s thought process. Coming as she did from a world where three to five hours or at most three to five days is the standard unit of time, the idea of an investor talking in years seemed to have thrown a spanner in her works.

Next, she pulled out the day’s newspaper and drew the old man’s attention to a news item that US unemployment was up to 700,000. She wanted to know what he thought of the news. Buffett said that he was sure that five years from now, the employment situation would be much better than it was today. Again, this epic timescale put an end to that line of questioning.
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The Working Capital Model (WCM) looks at investment performance differently, less emotionally, and without a whole lot of concern for short-term market value movements. Market value performance evaluation techniques are only used to analyze peak-to-peak market cycle movements over significant time periods.

Security market values are used for buy and sell decision-making. Working capital figures are used for asset allocation and diversification calculations. Portfolio working capital growth numbers are used to evaluate goal directed management decisions over shorter periods of time.

WCM tracking techniques help investors focus on long term growth producers like capital gains, dividends, and interest— the things that can keep the working capital line (see Part One) moving ever upward. The base income and cumulative realized capital gains lines are the most important WCM growth engines.

The Base Income Line tracks the total dividends and interest received each year. It will always move upward if you are managing your equity vs. fixed income asset allocation properly. Without adequate base income: 1) working capital will not grow normally during corrections and 2) there won’t be enough cash flow to take advantage of new investment opportunities.

The earlier you start tracking your dependable base income, the sooner you will discover that your retirement comfort level has little to do with portfolio market value.
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The year 2008 has entered the record books for all of the wrong reasons; the Dow Jones had its worst year ever! So what about 2009, how will stock markets from around the world perform and which are the stocks to follow?

Well in reality you need a crystal ball to be able to answer these questions. 2009 may well be another tough year.

I am a person who enjoys investing on the stock markets and I have to say that I am a bit of a gambler; I am quite prepared to take a risk with my disposable income in the hope that I can increase it etc. Just a quick note however, I am a financial adviser and anything that I write or suggest in this article should not be seen as advice.

I personally believe in investing an amount of money (an amount that I can afford) on a monthly basis instead of investing lump sums. This way I am able to take advantage of what is commonly referred to as Dollar cost averaging in the United States. This is where when prices are high your monthly contribution may buy fewer shares or fund units but that when prices are low your investment buys more shares or fund units.

During these volatile times this method of investing may prove to be the most prudent. Even though stock markets had a very poor 2008 and is therefore quite low there may well be significant falls ahead.
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As the growing number of foreclosures and the value of stock portfolios hit bottom, news reports from the US of the financial fallout are growing increasingly dire.

Layoffs, foreclosures, cutbacks – there are plenty of grim economic stats out there this holiday season. Here’s perhaps the grimmest one of all: Calls to National Suicide Prevention Lifeline hotline have soared by as much as 60 per cent over the past year.

Mental health experts say the sour economy has turned what usually manifests as seasonal blues into a full-blown crisis. The fear of losing one’s job and pressures caused by a downturn in business, demotion or pension plan cutbacks can be bad for mental health and therefore increase suicide risk.

“Fear is the No. 1 emotion we’re hearing. People are feeling hopeless and helpless because of the economic crisis, and many feel that things aren’t going to get better. Now many of the calls are from people who have lost their home, or their job, or who still have a job but can’t meet the cost of living.”

A 90-year-old woman in Ohio shot herself while being served an eviction notice. A 45-year-old businessman in Los Angeles murdered five members of his family before turning the gun on himself, saying in a suicide note that he had done so because of his troubling financial situation.

While these stories put a human face on the toll the financial crisis has taken, the Director General of the World Health Organization this may only be the tip of the iceberg. As people struggle to cope with losing their homes or livelihoods, she said, “It should not come as a surprise if we continue to see more stresses, more suicides and more mental disorders.”
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Offshore investment is the keeping of money in a jurisdiction other than one’s country of residence. Offshore jurisdictions are a commonly accepted solution to reducing excessive tax burdens levied in most countries to both large and small scale investors alike.

Selected offshore domiciles are superficially viewed by some as havens used by to conceal or protect illegally acquired money from law enforcement in the investor’s country. Although this may be the case, legitimate investors also take advantage of higher rates of return or lower rates of tax on that return offered by operating via such domiciles. The advantage to this is that such operations are both legal and less costly than the solutions offered in the investor’s country – or “onshore”

Another reason why ‘offshore’ investment is superior to ‘onshore’ investment is because it is less regulated, and the behavior of the offshore investment provider, whether he is a banker, fund manager, trustee or stock-broker, is freer than it could be in a more regulated environment.

Offshore investing refers to a wide range of investment strategies that capitalize on advantages offered outside of an investor’s home country.

The most important advantage in offshore investing is that you can make a lot of money without paying almost any taxes. If the investor lives in a place where he pays taxes like most countries then he will only pay taxes on his dividend or interest made.

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No matter how much you’ve read about trading, or how much experience you have as a trader, it is difficult to trade profitably in a volatile market environment like the one we are in now. A rising market is often perceived to reflect optimism and investor faith. Enthusiasm and rejuvenated interest in the markets rides high. Many investors have multiplied their money manifolds.

Now, is it time to quit? Will the bubble burst? The investor has many questions and very few options before him. Strategies for a rising market are crucial and much depends on the risk appetite of the investor.

Don’t sell into the panic. Don’t buy the greed. This is of course obvious to say, but harder to execute when it is actually happening. When you have extreme market conditions, the individual stock movements can be big and rapid, and they are not necessarily, and in fact, usually not at all, related to fundamentals or economics.

Will the upswing continue? This is a difficult question and much depends on the factors that contribute to the bull run. Many perceive the market to be over-heated and fear to set foot in it. Others view corrections as an opportunity to make quick money. But this calls for quick decision-making and considerable tolerance to risk.

The unfailing strategy is to buy great companies with long track records of rising stock prices and dividends. Pick them low and hold on. Over a long haul, such companies with good fundamentals will not fail you. It is not unusual to find some stocks faring poorly in a bull market and some doing exceptionally well in a bear market. A bull run implies a booming economy, low unemployment rate, high production of goods and low inflation.

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